Domestic urea supply will remain relatively abundant. Considering short-term unit shutdowns, the monthly urea output is expected to be around 6.5 million tonnes in November and December, an increase of 7.97%-8.33% year-on-year. 

China's Urea Monthly Output, 2024-2026E (Unit: '000 tonnes)

Source: OilChem

Despite the overall high output, seasonal maintenance will significantly impact gas-based production. Daily natural gas-based urea output is estimated at 34,000-39,000 tonnes in November and 30,000-35,000 tonnes in December, down 11.79%-21.46% from 41,380 tonnes in early October. Six gas-based plants will shut down in November, followed by another eight in December 2026-January 2027.

China's Urea Unit Maintenance Schedule, Q4 2026-Jan 2027 (Unit: '000 t/y, days)

Source: OilChem

Overall daily urea output is projected at 210,000-225,000 tonnes during November-December, with brief dips below 210,000 tonnes possible due to unplanned outages. A sustained fall below 200,000 tonnes would likely require extreme events, such as stricter environmental restrictions or widespread production halts due to severe winter weather.

China's Urea Daily Output, 2024-2026E (Unit: '000 tonnes)

Source: OilChem

In addition, three new urea plants including Xinjiang Xinlianxin Energy Chemical, Xinjiang Haoyuan Chemical, and Hebei Zhengyuan Chemical, may come online in November-December. This could potentially lift daily output by 8,000 tonnes, though their real impact will likely be felt more in 2027.

On the export side, policy is expected to be more relaxed than the restrictive measures seen a year earlier, with at least one more Indian tender anticipated this year. China exported 2.45 million tonnes of urea in September 2026, up 367.07% month-on-month and 78.71% year-on-year. Market insiders should focus on monthly export volumes and the resulting shifts in producer inventories to gauge the direction of urea prices.